Bombing Iran may help pass US ETS

Nearly two weeks ago, United States Senate leader Harry Reid, a green fanatic, was forced to ditch the Carbon 'Cap and Trade' bill that, if passed, would have seen a 1 trillion dollar attack on the already struggling US economy. The American people managed to mobilise enough senators to oppose it.

Failure of passage in the US has helped to stop Australia's own infamous ETS legislation.

But there are concerns that the US legislation could be snuck through, with commentators noting the upcoming, so-called "lame duck" session of the US Congress in November-December, in which there will be 30 or 40 Democratic members who have lost their seats in the mid-term elections, but whom will still be sitting in this session as voting members. The risk is that these Democrat Party members who may have previously voted against 'Cap and Trade' to protect their seats, will now have nothing to lose in supporting the legislation, and will in fact, have everything to gain, with many looking for patronage jobs in the Obama administration.

Adding to the fear is the current escalation toward bombing Iran. Such an attack on Iran could strangle oil supplies coming out of the Gulf and see the price of oil skyrocket. A doubling of the oil price, which is a strong possibility if an attack on Iran takes place, will mean so-called "green" energy will become economically viable and therefore provide ammunition for Cap and Trade supporters.

The point of military vulnerability is the strategically critical choke point known as the Strait of Hormuz. This is a narrow strait that oil tankers must pass through when traveling from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman which continues into the Arabian Sea. An average of about 15 tankers carrying 17 million barrels of crude oil normally pass through the strait every day. This represents approx 40% of seaborne oil shipments and 20% of overall oil shipments.

In June of 2008, the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Ali Mohammed Jafari, said that if Iran were attacked by Israel or the United States, it would wreak havoc in the Strait of Hormuz to destabilise world oil supply.

Obama is also hoping an attack on Iran will help him stem the bleeding at the mid-term elections, where his party is expected to lose numerous seats. However, considering the American people's weariness with military adventurism in the Middle East and South Asia, this is unlikely to help.